Hi everybody, let's dive right in. These were the first three questions, so let's address this right off the bat. In essence Gutekunst traded back four spots and gave up a third-rounder for what probably will be a late first-rounder next year. The math on that is good, and in most years for most teams it's probably a no-brainer. But I'm not convinced it was the right move for the 2018 Packers. I'm not saying flat out it's a bad move or anything like that, but if it's my call I'm not sure I'd do it. Rodgers will be 35 this year and the clock is ticking. They need some good players now, especially on defense. GMs really value picks through the third round, you can find some good players in the third. And it often takes a year before a young guy starts really contributing, so the first-rounder next year just pushes things a year further down the road. So I'm thinking that for the Packers as they are today, I'd probably rather have the third rounder and maybe trade up into the third round with all the draft capital they already had, which would give them two third-round picks, than have a late first-rounder next year (and have to trade up into the third to have one third-rounder this year). I very well might be in the minority on that and easily could be proven wrong. But I'm not sure I would have done the trade. That said, what matters most is how Alexander turns out. If he's better than James, Edmunds and Davenport, then it probably doesn't matter and the trade is a good one. If one of those other guys turns out to be a difference maker and Alexander isn't, then it's a bad move regardless.
Possibly, but I'd think a trade into the third round is more likely. I just checked the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, if they packaged their two fourth-rounders (101 and 131), it gets them into the later third round, and throw in their first fifth-rounder (138) and it gets them into the middle of the third.
My guess is the issues would scare off the Packers. Just a guess.
Like I said earlier, it could end up being a good deal. But I think you underplay the cost, giving up a third-rounder isn't nothing. A late first-rounder is more valuable than a mid-third, obviously no arguing with that. But third-rounders are valuable picks, and they have to wait a year to get the player, so there's an opportunity cost. I lean toward not doing the deal. You like it. Now we have to sit and watch for 2 or 3 years to see if it was the right move.
I'm sure there are some good rushers still out there, maybe even in the later rounds for all we know. Carter from Georgia might be an interesting guy, he's a possibility for the second round. Outside of the draft I'd think it's unlikely unless somebody is willing to deal a decent rusher after the draft.
There are all sorts of possibilities for how they could have played it. It sure looks like they really like Alexander, among other factors that went into the deal. We'll see.
No clue on my end either. Everyone you mentions is plausible. I saw that the NFL network reported that Landry has a medical red flag that concerns some teams (knee and back), so Packers will have to take that into account if he's still on the board at 45. Without knowing all that much about the players, I'd say Carter is intriguing, so is Hernandez (he's a guard) if he's still available, and of course Landry depending on the medical.
I'm thinking WR or OLB are most likely at No. 45, definitely wouldn't rule out OL or TE. At wide receiver, maybe Kirk from Texas A&M or Miller from Memphis (mentioned by LeeAnn in the previous question).
It's a legit question, though I'll say this. At 5-10 1/4, he's only a little below the 5-10 1/2 Mendoza line -- I realize the line has to be somewhere, and you don't like to go below it even a little bit. But he is 196 pounds, which is pretty decent sized, it's not like he's 180 or even 185. So it's not like he's Terrell Buckley, who not only was 5-9 1/8 but was 174 pounds at the scouting combine. That extra muscle mass matters. That said, sure the size still is a concern. One scout told me he was concerned with Denzel Ward's size (5-10 7/8) in the red zone, and Ward went No. 4 overall
I hadn't thought of that. That would be really interesting. From what I've read and seen on TV draft coverage the past few days, at least some GMs were more interested in getting, say, two second-rounders this year than a late first-rounder for trades back because the second round is strong, so maybe Gutekunst would have trouble finding someone to make that kind of deal. But your idea is interesting. Let's see what happens.
From what I've been told by scouts and read, Jackson has great ball skills and good size, but his speed is only OK and he doesn't tackle well. I don't doubt they'll pick at least one more CB and maybe two, but don't know if it would be in the second round. More likely a little later is my best guess.
I wondered that, asked a couple scouts in the league that last night, one said yeah, they could have gotten him at 27, the other said maybe. If they really liked him, waiting that long would have been risky.
I don't want to take the time to do the draft-chart math, but just eyeballing it that's an attractive trade for the Packers, two high seconds and a third. I wonder if the Colts would do it though. Seems like it favors the Packers a little too much.
Several people posted similar sentiments, so I'll let Chris speak for them.
Yeah, I'd think he'll take another look after seeing what he's got from the draft. And there's always the chance a couple decent players around the league get cut because teams feel they can replace them with guys they drafted.
Agreed that if Alexander is good that goes a long way toward helping the Packers. But if one of those defensive guys Gutekunst passed on (Edmunds, James, Davenport) ends up being a true difference maker, then it's still a mistake. Difference makers win games. But who knows? maybe Alexander will be one.
I'd say we can't rule it out. The pros are he's a big, talented receiver who could be a factor playing with a QB as good as Rodgers. The con is that he's an emotional, high-maintenance guy, and if things don't go well could cause problems in the locker room. If they could sign him to only a one-year deal, which it appears he's open to, that could make him more attractive because he has more incentive to perform and not be a problem if things don't go well. There's definitely some risk, kind of exemplified in a conversation I had with a scout who works in the NFC East. When I first asked him, he said the thought of Bryant playing in Green Bay kind of scared him, because part of the problem in Dallas was that Bryant's chemistry with Prescott is bad, but that playing with a QB as good as Rodgers could bring Bryant back to life. But then when I asked about the potential locker-room problems, he said that might make him think twice if he's the Packers.
Probably a little of both. Gutekunst said there was a guy or two he was considering possible trades up for, but when they went off the board then he started looking for possible trades back. I'm guessing/assuming the guys he was talking about were Chubb and Ward, and maybe Roquan Smith, but just guessing on Smith.
I'm not sure about that. Probably plays in somewhat but has to depend on what they've seen from M. Adams and Biegel in the offseason. They haven't shared any of that. Since they are unknowns, though, I don't know that they can assume too much about either.
That would be my best guess, especially because Alexander is on the short side, and teams prefer having taller guys on the outside to defend the deep ball. But Alexander's speed (4.38) is good for playing outside and keeping up with receivers on deep routes, so maybe they see him outside and Williams inside.
That's just yet another indication of how different scouts and teams see players differently. New Orleans considered Davenport worth the trade up. The Packers were fine passing on him. I've heard Gutenkunst was concerned about Davenport's small-school background, at least for taking him in the middle of the first round considering the other players available. If he turns out to be Ziggy Ansah, then passing on him probably was a mistake unless Alexander is equally good at CB.