OK, draft starts in six hours, let's dive right in. I'm wondering the same thing. I have to think it's a possibility someone will move up to get him by 13, but none of the handful of scouts I talked with thought it was likely. They only saw four QBs going in top 13.
Those are football decisions too, so it's risk-reward. I don't know the injury grade the Packers gave King. They weigh talent and upside against the injury, so you don't know how much of it was the medical staff and how much was the GM willing to take the chance. Sometimes you have to take risks like that, especially late in the first round/early second, for a shot at a possible difference-making talent.
I know he's got a neck issue that lowers his grade for some teams. If you want to play him as a 3-4 OLB, it's a projection because he played inside in college from what understand. Interesting player though.
Pass rusher probably is a little higher priority, but you can't force these things either. If there are guys with measurably better grades at other positions available when you pick, you need to pick them, because more than anything the Packers need playmakers regardless of position. I still wonder if Davenport could end up being a good player in a couple years, but from talking with people who know Gutekunst from scouting circles, they think he'll be a little wary of Davenport because of the lower level of competition, that he'll prefer more proven big-school players for his first rounder. But maybe all the CBs and LBs will be off the board by 14, then we'll find out what he thinks of Davenport.
I'm sure he saw the Packers needed a CB, Ward was off the board (as were DBs James and Fitzpatrick), and he gave them the next-best cornerback on his board. He probably has Alexander rated higher than Davenport and Landry, so that was the guy who made sense to him.
That's a real possibility. Then with the extra draft capital maybe he moves up from 46, or moves up in the third round, something like that, depending on what he gets for the initial move back. We have no history on Gutekunst, so everybody's really just guessing on whether he'll move up or back or sit and pick. And he might want to move up or back, but it takes two to tango.
I don't know that there's a Jalen Ramsey in this draft, he's already one of the best CBs in the game. I'm sure they'd love to get Ward, but to do that they'll almost surely have to trade up.
A lot. In 2012 I think it was, Dallas moved from 14 to 6 for its second-rounder (No. 45, just like the Packers have). But I doubt that gets Chubb. He probably goes top five, and if he's available at 6 and Indy has stayed in that spot, I'd think the Colts would take him. To get into the top five would cost next year's first-rounder. They'd have to absolutely love Chubb and think he's a likely Hall of Famer to do that.
He definitely comes across as a no-nonsense guy. Dad was a legendary HS coach in Pennsylvania and was really really tough on him growing up and as his HS coach. But like always, we'll have to judge him by what happens on the field.
From the research I did for a column earlier in the offseason, it looked to me like a fourth-rounder could move them up a spot or two, a third rounder maybe, maybe as high as 9.
Looks to me like Chubb is out of reach. Any of the others might be fair game if he's willing to give up a third-rounder (and maybe like a six?) to move up to No. 9 or so. The Bears reportedly want to trade down from No. 8, but I wonder if they'd be willing to do a deal with a division rival, they very well might not. Could be a lot of maneuvering and trades, especially because of those QBs. Should be a really interesting first round.
That might be part of the thinking, that if he has another season like last year, then they could let him walk. Sounds like James and Jones are similar players though James is better. But if they drafted James you have to think they'd have a plan to get all three safeties on the field together a lot. Maybe move Jones to linebacker, or James, in the nickel, for instance. Some teams think Fitzpatrick can be a good CB in the NFL, others think he's a safety. I'm assuming if the Packers picked him, it would be because they think he can play slot corner in the nickel.
I'd question it if that was the thinking. Because if he's another Ziggy Ansah, well, that's a pretty good pass rusher, a guy who affects game. I guess the question is how strongly they felt he'd eventually be good. If they think it will take a year or two but like the odds of it happening, they should take him. Just depends on how strong the doubts are about whether he'll really be that good.
Funny, I was just discussing that this morning via text with a friend/colleague, and he made the same point. His thinking was, it's such a crapshoot with the QBs -- any one or two of the four could be good, and it very well won't turn it out in the order they were picked -- that why not take the best player (i.e., Barkley) at No. 1, then take the best remaining QB at No. 4. It's a pretty good point. But it goes against human nature. I doubt there are many if any GMs who wouldn't think that they want their pick of the best QBs, even though they know all about the odds. Or maybe they have a strong conviction about one guy in particular. But I think your point is a really good one. I don't think many people in the league like to admit how much luck plays a role in drafting.
You're right, not that many. I say this in these chats all the time, but go to drafthistory.com and look at the last 10 or 15 first rounds. Way more misses than hits, and good and even great players are sprinkled throughout the rest of the draft. Yet, the analytics also show that while odds are better for a miss than a hit even in the first round, the odds of finding a really good or great player are better in the first round than the second, etc., and they're better in the top five than top 10, and better in the top 10 than top 15, etc. But you're right. And we all need to remember that there's a decent chance the best player in the Packers' draft class won't be their first-round pick.
I can't disagree, although if Fitzpatrick is there at 14, I'm thinking they'd pick him rather than trade back.
That's what many of us are thinking, even if it's moving up in round 2 or 3 instead of 1.
That might require a big move up, like to 6 or 7.
Assuming they don't trade back in R1, I'd say any time starting in round 2 is a possibility.
Well, journalists talk to scouts, so a lot of what they rate is based on what scouts tell them. Also, different scouts can see the same player so differently it's almost laughable. It's hard to get this across, but especially when I was writing a draft series, I'd ask six or seven scouts on a player, and the range of evaluations usually was pretty wide. Even in this draft, for instance, I asked five scouts about the outside rushers. Four were relatively lukewarm on Landry, but the fifth loved him and had him as the second-best rusher in the draft. On Davenort, one guy I talked to loved him, thinks that with good coaching he'll get six to eight sacks as a rookie and be in double digits his second year. A couple other guys were intrigued by him but are really concerned with the low level of competition he played against, it makes it a bigger projection to think he'll be successful in the NFL. So opinions even among experts are all over the map. And as you suggest, there could be a later-round outside rusher, for instance, that they really like and think might end up being as good as the guys who will get taken in the first round.
I'd think Ward and Edmunds would be realistic trade up targets. Maybe James.