Me neither. Strikes me as 0 percent chance. Obviously they're floating that to help with leverage but they really don't need to. If two teams really want Kizer (or another QB), then one of them is going to have to go to 33 to be sure to get him.
Yeah, he's definitely open for business. Made that abundantly clear last night, and all the reports today make it clear too. I really don't know how far back he can go and still feel good about getting good players.I'd think he wouldn't want to go too deep -- just guessing, but maybe middle of the second round at the latest -- but it all depends on how they've graded players. The consensus seems to be that this is a better-than-usual draft as far as its depth, most notably at CB, RB and edge rusher. If he moves back again, I'm thinking he finishes this draft with two CBs and two RBs.
Pretty good synopsis. He could trade back -- and even if he doesn't -- package two of his fourth-rounders to get into the third round. That would give him four picks in rounds two and three combined. He could, as you say, use one of the extra picks he gains to improve his draft position for a guy he likes from his own second-round pick, or move up in the third round. And more picks generally is better because of the luck element. There's a fair amount of luck in this as well as drafting acumen, so the more picks the better. But no, you don't want all all fourth- and fifth-round picks. Generally picks in the top 100 or so have a lot more value than picks below. I'd think if you're looking for a guy who's going to help you immediately, your chances are much better if he's picked in the first three rounds than thereafter. Just a general guideline. Just guessing here, but I'm thinking he's going to come out of this with two second-rounders and two thirds, or maybe more depending on what he can get for No. 33 if a team really wants a QB.
I didn't talk to any scouts who liked UW's Biegel better than Watt, but Bob McGinn did for his draft preview. If I remember right, two of the many scouts he talks with said that. I also know that a young independent draft guru who Aaron Nagler knows -- Justis Mosqueda -- likes Biegel better. But there were people who really liked Watt too. That's how scouting is.
A coupe guys I talked to liked him a fair amount. They thought he was pretty explosive off the edge, a quick-twitch guy. He tested well too -- 4.65 40, 6.75 three-cone is very good, 37 1/2 vertical is really good. And he played mostly as a standing 3-4 OLB if I remember right, so you're not projecting him to a new position. Seemed like an interesting player from the small sample of scouts I asked about him.
I got that sense during and after the season, and really, we could all see with our own eyes the issues there all season.
I haven't seen that data anywhere but have to believe there is. I saw something I think from the NFLPA where even when looking at only drafted guys the average career length goes from 3.something years to like 5 -- those numbers aren't exact, but it was something like that.
Sure looks like that's Thompson's plan.
Yes, very good point and I thought the same thing last night when everyone was saying how well that worked out. It did work out great, Nelson has been excellent, but it was from slow, steady, incessant improvement. And this year they need help immediately at CB, pass rusher and RB. So I agree completely. But the consensus in the league seems to be that this draft is uncommonly deep. Thompson knows he needs help immediately, so that has to be part of his thinking, that he can find guys in the second and third rounds who have a pretty good shot at helping right away.
There probably are a decent number of guys who can help right away. And I'll caution everybody, you never know how picks are going to turn out. That graphic ESPN ran last night about Cleveland having two first-round picks five times (I think) over the past 10 or so years was a great reminder. I can remember after several of those drafts how experts thought they killed it with those picks, but all but Joe Thomas ended up being busts. You just don't know. That's why I don't get into which guy I think they should pick, or who had a good draft. Projecting players from college to the NFL adds a huge layer of difficulty and uncertainty to the scouting process, and even the people paid to do it for a living are wrong a lot, and they're watching tape of all these guys for their full-time job. For what it's worth, if this draft is as deep as it appears to be, then they should be able to get immediate help in the second and maybe third rounds. I'm thinking of guys like the quality (thought not position) of a Greg Jennings, something like that. He was a good player right off the bat.
Yeah, I think they talk to them during the draft Saturday. One of their recruiting tools is the draft visits. Most of the 30 guys they bring in are late-round and priority UDFAs. They bring them in so if the guys is a UDFA he's had a chance to see their facilities and talk to the coaches and can see first-hand that they really like them. And yes, their history of keeping a couple UDFAs a year has to help with that recruiting. Agents know their guys will get a fair shot.
They might, though I'd lean against thinking they will it unless they end up with maybe 10 picks or more. They can sign an undrafted guy to do that. Maybe there's a punter they really like, and if they have enough picks they'd be OK using a six or seven on one. But they have a lot of needs on the rest of the roster, too.
Answered this earlier, but lots of questions about him so I'll do it one more. There's no way they're drafting that guy, that would make less-than-zero sense. Just a ploy to increase the bidding for a trade.
I don't know how far back he'd go but I'd think he wouldn't want to go farther back than the middle of the round, and really maybe only a few more spots. Could be a lot of guys. The OLB Bowser, any number of those CBs who were late first to late second-round types -- Quincy Wilson, Awuzie, for example.
I'm wondering the same thing, especially with Cook. He's got to be at least under consideration if they stay at 33, though the defensive needs still might/probably win out. But let's say Thompson somehow ends up with three second-rounders. If Cook is still on the board when one of those comes up, maybe. I personally am skeptical about Mixon because I still have trouble believing Thompson would invite that scrutiny into his locker room. But maybe I'm dead wrong.
Kinda answered this earlier, but basically, history suggests that more picks are better -- it doesn't always work out, but it improves your odds. So my inclination is to think it was probably a good move, or at least a smart percentage move. But a lot depends on how Watt turns out. He went to a team, Pittsburgh, that plays the same defense as the Packers. They have a great reputation for picking OLBs, which is the most important position in the Packers-Steelers scheme. If they liked him enough to take him, it does make me wonder what the Packers saw that they were OK moving back and giving others a shot at him. If Watt has a really good career, the trade back was bad unless Thompson finds somebody who's just as good or better.
Willis is one of them, Bowser, Lawson from Auburn jump to mind immediately. Biegel is a guy some scouts liked, and it sounds like he could go from late second round to late third. I don't know which edge rusher will be next, different teams see guys differently.
Probably not too much to ask, very well could turn out that way. Not a given it will, there could be, say, a WR they like a lot who's available in the third or fourth round. But I easily could see your scenario playing out, or something very close to it (maybe only one CB in the first four rounds, for instance).
It's Murphy's call on Thompson, and Murphy clearly thinks very highly of his GM. He has said so numerous times and cites the teams eight straight playoff appearances, three NFC title games and Super Bowl win as evidence. I don't know of anybody who thinks Thompson is beyond questioning. He gets criticized by everyone on the Packers beat (and you only have to look at Twitter every once in a while to see from much of the fan base as well) at times. But criticizing him and thinking he shouldn't be GM are two very different things. I think overall he's a good GM. You're right that he hasn't drafted nearly as well as he did early. There's no getting around that. For the last few years many of us have thought he could use free agency strategically, and he basically wouldn't (with a couple rare exceptions). But then this offseason he has. He needs a good draft, much better than he's had in the last four or five years. But I personally can't just dismiss his exceptional early drafts, either. Now, he's getting up there in age, and it is a relatively young man's business. His contract runs through '18. If I were a betting man, I'd bet that he'll retire after that.
You can look at it that way. You can also say that picks in the late first round and late third rounds are really second and fourth rounders.
Sure looks like they want to trade it. I'm betting better than 50 percent chance they move back again.
I certainly can't say for sure. But I'd think if he liked Watt a lot he would have just taken him. He must have had some reservations or a really strong desire to gain extra picks.